What Is CLV In Betting? (Closing Line Value Explained)

Closing line value is one of those betting terms that is used in abundance by professional bettors. Find out here what CLV is and how bettors integrate CLV into their betting strategies.

CLV, otherwise known as Closing Line Value is a comparison between the odds when a bet was placed and the odds when a betting market closes. It is referenced in positive and negative CLV terms.

This guide further explains this concept and provides insights to help you beat the closing line more often than not.

What Is Closing Line Value?

Closing line value occurs because betting markets are fluid and betting lines can move. Odds for some of the world’s most bet on sports such as the NFL are often posted days before the game kicks off. Ideally, sports bettors want to bet at better odds than when the line closes.

A positive CLV occurs when you took better odds, and negative CLV when you took worse odds than when the game kicked off. Ultimately, you want to get better odds than when the market closed.

An Example Of Positive Closing Line Value

Let’s say that when the moneyline odds are released and a team is favored to win at odds of -200, bettors may believe that these odds are generous and many make a corresponding wager.

Due to the volume of bets being placed, the oddsmakers will ensure that they aren’t risking huge losses by shifting the betting line to -150.

If the line closes at -150, bettors that placed a $10 bet to win at -200 will win more than a bettor who placed the same bet at -150

As well as being able to benefit from closing line value on outright moneyline bets, closing line value can also occur on spread and totals betting.

An Example Negative Closing Line Value

There are also instances where the closing spread or moneyline is bigger than when you first bet on it.

For example, you could encounter a negative closing line value if you bet the spread +3 but the line closes at +3.5. Ideally, every bettor wants to avoid this scenario.

Why Is CLV Important in Sports Betting?

Closing line value is an important tool for a sports bettor and can help determine whether a bettor can be profitable in the long run.

The closing line value helps measure the value of bets, and the great thing is that it can easily be compared and tracked.

If bettors are consistently achieving positive closing line value numbers, this means that the bets that are being made are often more likely to be successful and can be considered smart bets.

If a bettor finds that their bets are often achieving negative closing line values, this should inform them that their current strategy isn’t working and that a change in strategy might be required.

US Sportsbooks To Try CLV Betting At

An important consideration for any would be bettor who wants to use closing line value in their betting is to find sportsbooks with competitively priced odds. At any of our sportsbooks, you can find a plethora of betting markets and extensive sports coverage, all at unbeatable prices.

Sign up at any of our reccomended sportsbooks and claim a generous welcome package to get off to the best possible start with your CLV bets.

How To Beat the Closing Line

To give yourself the best chance of consistently beating the closing line, follow these steps below:

• Pay close attention to the opening line and line movement: as the opening lines for games are often released well in advance, betting lines will quickly start to shift. If you notice a pattern in the betting line, you will need to gauge at what time you think the perfect time to place a bet will be.
• Check betting lines more than once: a common mistake that recreational bettors make is that they see attractive odds and then immediately place their bets. You should try and check the betting lines throughout the week as this should help you determine the right time to place your bets.
• Open multiple sportsbook accounts: odds aren’t universal and different betting sites will often contain different values. If you have access to multiple online betting sites, you should be able to line shop and easily compare the various different odds. This can help you earn maximum value.
• Pay attention to factors that impact line movements: It is easier than ever to keep up to date with the latest sports news. Injuries and suspensions can greatly impact how betting lines move. Monitoring developments can be a major factor as to whether you will beat the closing line.

How to Track CLV

Tracking closing line values is simple:

• Keep track of all your bets and note the difference in odds when the bets were first placed and the odds when the line closed. There are various online betting trackers that you can use, or you can keep track of your bets manually. If you bet regularly, this should enable you to quickly see at a glance whether you are achieving positive CLV or not. Sports bettors who achieve positive closing line value are far more likely to be profitable in the long run.
• Stay on top of the closing line. Monitoring a betting line regularly should enable you to see whether you will achieve a positive CLV or not. By tracking lines closely, you might be able to notice trends and patterns. Staying on top of the betting lines will help you make better-informed betting decisions.

How to Calculate CLV

There are three ways in which closing line value can be calculated.

• Tracking dollars and cents
• Win probability percentage
• Expected value

Tracking Dollars and Cents

Closing line value can be obtained on both money and spread betting lines; however, tracking via dollars and cents impacts moneyline bets only.

If you place a $100 bet with +200 odds, and the odds shift to +150 when closed, your bet could see you win $50 more than someone who bet just before the closing line. $50 is half of the $100 wager, so some bettors would look at this as a 50 “cent” win in CLV terms.

Win Probability Percentage

A win probability percentage compares the win probability percentages of the odds when your bet was placed and the closing line value.

If you have placed a moneyline bet at odds of -120, this bet has a win probability percentage of 54.55%. If the market closes at -170, the win probability has moved to a percentage of 62.96%. To work out the percentage subtract the two probabilities.

• 96% – 54.55% = 8.41%

The 8.41% suggests that your bet has more of a chance of being successful than when first placed.

Expected Value

Expected value ties into the win probability. To calculate expected value, take the 8.41% win probability percentage and apply that to your initial win probability percentage number. Divide the two numbers together.

No matter what method you wish to use, there are numerous CLV calculators that you can use to help you work out your CLV percentages.

No Vig CLV

The ‘Vig’ is the margin that bookmakers make with every betting line. There is a way that CLV calculations can be made without considering the Vig.

Using the same example as above, if your -120 wager closed at  +100, you would divide the implied probability of the -120 odds (54.55%) by the sum of the closing line probability (54.55 + 50) to reach a no-vig result.

In this case, the final outcome would be a 52.17% no-vig implied probability.

Other CLV Considerations

Another thing to consider when considering closing line value is the probability of a push. A push in sports betting means that no money is lost and your stake will be returned. This can happen in both spread and totals betting. The math behind working out the potential for your bet to push is quite complicated.

However, any decent CLV calculator will help you work this out.

Closing Line Value FAQ

What is the closing line value?

Closing line value is a simple comparison between the odds when a bet was placed and the odds when a betting line closes.

How is CLV calculated in betting?

Closing line value can be calculated in a manner of ways, but some of the most popular ways to work out CLV are to work out win probabilities, tracking the dollars and cents as well as calculating the expected CLV values.

How often should you beat the closing line?

Bettors should aim to beat the closing line as much as possible. The more a bettor beats the closing line, the more successful they are likely to be.

Is a higher or lower CLV better?

Every bettor wants to achieve a higher CLV – also known as a positive CLV.

Should CLV be less than 1?

CLV should always be bigger than 1. It won’t happen every time, but if CLV figures are on average above 1 this is a good thing.

How do you find closing lines?

Closing lines are present across every sportsbook across the US. If you compare lines across sportsbooks this should help you find better CLV values.